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Do you know the odds of being alive? Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. It is like finding out how many angels can stand on a pin-head! It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. If there is only one outcome then the probability is 1/1=1. Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 102,685,000. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. So now we must account for those 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000 power: That's a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes the size of my book. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is. Are you a miracle? On the probability of being born | Dr. Ali Binazir or one in 6.821014, or about 1 in 700 trillion. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. He used a thought experiment to illustrate this that became known popularly as the infinite monkey theorem; this states that if an infinite number of monkeys pound the keys of an infinite number of typewriters they will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. For the curious, that is expressed as one in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. If you shouldnt even be here, then what is the point of worrying? Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: 1 in 400 quadrillion. When you do the math, which I didnt but Dr. Binazir did: That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion.. You are wonderfully and fearfully made, and God has done a marvelous thing. First, lets talk about the probability of your parents meeting. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001.. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. Are they gross exaggerations? Were we meant to be, each and every one of us? So far, so good. But, the odds of every bridge deal are exactly the same. It makes me want to practice love, forgiveness, gratitude, acceptance, service/charity, kindness, being humble while inherently owning my miraculous self. Step 4. Scientists Calculate the Probability of Your Existence, Conclusions They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). Sean said that we have already won the cosmic lottery simply by being born because the odds of that happening alone is one in a gazillion times. The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about . Borel's Law of Probability - Owlcation Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. That's 150,000 generations. I would certainly add in (sadly) that there is the possibility of abortion or miscarriage, but even a simple analysis yields an astonishingly small probability. Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: one in 400 quadrillion. He assumes each person is alert and awake for eight hours a day (this allows for downtime watching reality TV shows when the human brain is entirely inactive). Step 2. Which one's bigger? Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! I bet the odds of becoming a millionaire in Zambia, where I lived for one year, is less than 1%. Thats 150,000 generations. Lets not get carried away here; well just deal with the human lineage. Think of yourself as dead. On top of that, to be born in a first-world country, the odds are even smaller. The odds of red or black are 50:50 with each spin of the wheel. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Dr. Ali Binazir Specializes In Dating/Being Single Support, Empowering Women, NLP, Phobias/OCD And Wellness And Is Located In San Francisco, CA. Scripture says. A lovely day to you. I'm Heidi, I'm a writer, a mama and a sober recovery teacher/mentor. Are they gross exaggerations? Is that an African fly or a European one? According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 3.409108 square kilometers, or 340,900,000 km2 (131.6 million square miles, for those benighted souls who still cling to user-hostile British measures). Blog Home Uncategorized dr ali binazir odds of being born. So, it seems fair to say that there are an infinite number of possibilities of any event happening not matter how remote the chance. Hello there! Our own galaxy, the Milky Way, has as many as 400 billion stars in it and at least 100 billion planets. If you assume there are 3 billion women and 3 billion men alive today, that means 3 x 10^14 eggs and 3.6 x 10^22 sperm are currently on the planet, for a total of 1.1 x 10^37 possible pairings. 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. dr ali binazir odds of being born - simssuccessgroup.com Its almost too big to process, just know that the odds that you exist at all are basically zero. The odds of being born - Lottoland Thats just the observable Universe; we havent the faintest idea what is beyond what we can detect with our instruments. Thank you, Monsignor. Borels Law says such a number means something is impossible, and yet, its not. I have over 2,000 posts here & my recovery related blogs are all under the RecovHer category at the top. 530 Lovett Blvd, Houston, TX 77006 +1 (713) 942-9600; pricing strategy of samsung mobile phones. By all accounts, you shouldnt even be here. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. This book will rapidly bring you up to speed on epidemiology and pandemic management. Step 4. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? So lets say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million: Probability of boy meeting girl: 1 in 20,000. Also follow me on Instagram @RecovHer and visit my RecovHer YouTube Channel for more sober tools and tips. it is impossible)., The astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle illustrated this with his Junkyard Tornado Theory: The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.. One of the talks was by Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author and life coach with a syndicated radio show. Step 3. Here it should be realize it is a quest work. On one try.. He breaks the chances you were born down like this: The probability of your parents meeting is one in 20,000. I hope you use your chance well. Gather your loved ones around and give props to your incredibly resilient and badass survivor ancestors, while you explode your gender revel confetti poppers. You asked for more Brain Yoga, so here are the upcoming classes. In 1913, at the roulette wheel at the Casino de Monte-Carlo, the ball dropped into a black slot 26 times in succession. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. But even if you dont believe in that, the science is enough. Some of the numbers are approximations, but generally they are on the conservative side. Wowser. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. Mathematician Professor John Littlewood of Cambridge University defined a miracle as an event happening with a frequency of one in a million. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their grandparents, and so on till the beginning of time. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. We're about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. So, round-trip time works out to be about 14 yearsfor the fly to go to the moon and back. Thats three billion years, or about 150,000 generations, of reproduction without a hitch. But, doesnt that seem a bit low? The odds of being murdered are relatively low when compared to other possible causes of death. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? We were all meant to be here and that we must find our purpose that brought us into creation! Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. The fact is, you have a monumentally better chance of becoming anybody you want to be than of even being at all. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? Then the probability of Mr. Popes point: that we are not accidents, that God chose to create you and [me]. No need for caution about drawing any conclusion other that the one he quite explicitly drew. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Lets say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause dont count. He looked at the odds of your parents meeting, given how many men and women there are on Earth and how many people of the opposite sex your mother and father would have met in their first 25 years of life. Opportunity - livebendy.com Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. Or stalk me (with love.). To get the final answer, technically we need to multiply that by the 1045,000 , 2000 and 20,000 up there, but those numbers are so shrimpy in comparison that it almost doesnt matter. The number of atoms making up the earth is about 1050. But its not even remotely comparable with 10^2,685,000. I was toying with this other idea, about an owl who falls in love with a cat and brings it mice every day. We were not born by accident given the odds calculated by scientists showing the odds of you being born are at least 1 in 400 trillion IF NOT 1 in 400 quadrillion and most likely 1 in 10.2,640,000. I recently got to wondering: What are the chances that my son was born? Probability is a pure odd. They each roll the dice and they all come up with. Moreover, the second shot would not necessary run into the red. So beginning with your folks, your odds of you being born come out to 1 in 400,000,000,000,000,000 or 1 in 4 quadrillion. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. The analogy given by Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of YOU being born is here: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. One night, perhaps, the same dream, grown hazy by morning. Learn more here: Dr. Ali Binazir's Article on Probability of Being Born Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? Its the probability of 2 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Rich E Cunningham from Ontario, Canada on May 14, 2020: Interesting article, guess we are lucky to be here! Marcus Aurelius offers wisdom on how to use this fact. The odds of being born are less than the total number of atoms in the known universe! Just go have some fucking fun! And lets say the fly decides to bring the ENTIRE MOON back to the Earth, one grain of sand at a time. : A definitive guide for smart women, How to Get Guys: The 6.5 Dating Phases of Men. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. Theologically, of course, we are no accident; we do not exist by happenstance. Because were about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. The atheist and agnostics give the existence of God about the same odds. Step 1. The learned Frenchman put a number on it10 to the power of 50, written as 1050in order to impress upon the common herd that its members are not mathematicians. They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same numberfor example, 550,343,279,001., A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Or could they be underestimates of the true number? In a 2011 HuffPost article, he set about calculating the likelihood of each of us being born. Throw your exploding gender reveal football to festively burst with pink or blue powder. Who knows, maybe the ball that vanished into childhood's thicket? The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. Heres Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Borels Law has since been enlisted by creationists and evolutionists alike to bolster their arguments. What Does Jesus Mean When He Says We Must Be Salted with Fire. The odds of you being born as you are about 1 in 400 trillion, or more. Its not cheesy to be grateful to be alive, if you look at the facts, it should be normal. If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. On one try. And worry and fear? But now, as long as I'm musing about insane probabilities, I thought I'd delve a little into the odds of us even being born and what that took! On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? The numbers are getting plenty huge as it is. Scientists have calculated the odds of a human being born as at least 1 in 400 trillion. Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. Ali Binazir | Armchair Economist Something was dropped and then picked up. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? However, as the astute who do exist will have observed, extremely improbable events do actually occur. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. Those who are brave (foolish?) A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001. The probability of this happening is 635,013,559,600 to one against. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. dr ali binazir odds of being born - sindicaturarosarito.gob.mx And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. So I got curious: are either of these numbers correct? Its maddening to see people worry so much. I met a couple of interesting people at a casual meet-up and the topic of the day was a good life. The first single-cell organism emerging from an inanimate chemical soup is not something that could have happened by chance. Then he looked at the chances of them talking, of meeting again, of forming a long-term relationship, of having kids together, and of the right egg and the right sperm combining to make you. However, your existence presupposes another supremely unlikely chain of events. xx, Lets be social! That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. Step 1. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. To complete the analysis: (102,640,000) (1045,000) (40,000,000) = 4 x 102,685,007 102,685,000. Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. You are also agreeing to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Or is it much too early in the week, this being only Monday, for thinking about stuff like this? Or are we glorious accidents, each and every one? If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. Are You a Miracle? So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. *wink wink* Well, hello thereBom chicka wow wowits: The chance of every one of your ancestors outrunning dinosaurs, disease, war and pestilence to live to reproductive age and reproduce successfully is one in 10. Here's Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: "It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice.